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Harley-Davidson Reports Fourth Quarter and Full Year Results for 2007

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Harley-Davidson Reports Fourth Quarter and Full Year Results for 2007 - Auto News from January 25, 2008

MILWAUKEE, Jan. 25 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- Harley-Davidson, Inc. today announced its results for the fourth quarter and the year ended December 31, 2007. Revenue for the quarter was $1.39 billion compared to $1.50 billion in the year-ago quarter, a 7.7 percent decline. Net income for the quarter was $186.1 million compared to $252.4 million, down 26.3 percent versus the fourth quarter of 2006. Fourth quarter diluted earnings per share were $0.78, a 19.6 percent decrease compared to $0.97 in the fourth quarter of last year. During the fourth quarter the Company repurchased $153.3 million of its common stock.

Revenue for the full year 2007 was $5.73 billion compared to $5.80 billion in 2006, a 1.3 percent decline. For the full year, wholesale shipments of Harley-Davidson(R) motorcycles were 330,619 units, a 5.3 percent decrease compared to 2006. Diluted earnings per share were $3.74, declining 4.8 percent compared to 2006.

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"Harley-Davidson managed through a weak U.S. economy during 2007," said Jim Ziemer, Chief Executive Officer of Harley-Davidson, Inc. "As we announced in September, we reduced our wholesale motorcycle shipment plan for the fourth quarter, fulfilling our commitment to our dealers to ship fewer Harley-Davidson motorcycles than we expected our dealers worldwide to sell at retail during 2007," said Ziemer.

"While these are challenging times in the U.S., our international dealer network delivered double digit retail sales growth in the fourth quarter and for the full year of 2007. And our customers around the world have a lot to look forward to this year with the new motorcycles we are bringing to market, the opening of the Harley-Davidson Museum, and hundreds of rides and events leading up to our 105th Anniversary Celebration in Milwaukee this summer," he said.

For 2008, the Company once again plans to ship fewer Harley-Davidson motorcycles than it expects its worldwide dealer network to sell. The Company also expects moderate revenue growth, lower operating margin, and a diluted earnings per share growth rate of 4 to 7 percent compared to 2007. For the first quarter, it expects to ship between 68,000 and 72,000 Harley-Davidson motorcycles, which compares to 67,761 units in the first quarter of 2007.

"Looking ahead, we will continue to manage the Company to generate long-term sustainable shareholder value while protecting the brand. We expect the U.S. economy to continue to be very challenging in 2008, and we will closely monitor the retail environment and regularly assess our wholesale shipments throughout the year," said Ziemer.

Motorcycles and Related Products Segment -- Fourth Quarter Results

Revenue from Harley-Davidson motorcycles was $1.12 billion, a decrease of $105.5 million or 8.6 percent versus the same period last year. Shipments of Harley-Davidson motorcycles totaled 81,206 units, a decrease of 11,642 units or 12.5 percent compared to last year's fourth quarter.

Revenue from Parts and Accessories (P&A), which consists of Genuine Motor Parts and Genuine Motor Accessories, totaled $165.2 million, a decrease of $14.0 million or 7.8 percent from the year-ago quarter. Revenue from General Merchandise, which consists of MotorClothes(R) apparel and collectibles, totaled $73.4 million, an increase of $2.8 million or 4.0 percent over the year-ago quarter.

Gross margin for the fourth quarter of 2007 was 35.7 percent of revenue compared to 38.0 percent for the fourth quarter last year. Fourth quarter operating margin decreased to 18.1 percent from 22.5 percent in the fourth quarter of 2006.

Motorcycle Retail Sales Data

During the fourth quarter, worldwide retail sales of Harley-Davidson motorcycles decreased 6.1 percent compared to the fourth quarter of 2006. U.S. retail sales of Harley-Davidson motorcycles decreased 14.2 percent for the quarter. The heavyweight motorcycle market in the U.S. decreased 9.0 percent for the same period.

Retail sales of Harley-Davidson motorcycles increased 17.4 percent in the Company's international markets during the fourth quarter of 2007 compared to the fourth quarter of 2006. Fourth quarter retail sales increased 10.9 percent in Europe; Canada was up 45.9 percent; and Japan was up 4.5 percent. All other international markets combined were up 28.6 percent.

For the full year of 2007, worldwide retail sales of Harley-Davidson motorcycles decreased 1.8 percent compared to the prior year. In the U.S., Harley-Davidson dealer retail sales decreased 6.2 percent for the full year; international retail sales increased by 13.7 percent. The U.S. heavyweight motorcycle market was down 5.0 percent for the full year of 2007.

Additional data is listed in the accompanying tables.

Financial Services Segment

Harley-Davidson Financial Services (HDFS) reported fourth quarter operating income of $38.6 million, a decrease of $9.1 million or 19.1 percent compared to the year ago quarter. The decrease is primarily due to a $6.4 million write-down of retained securitization interests.

Income Tax Rate

The Company's fourth quarter effective income tax rate was 35.5 percent compared to 35.1 percent in the same quarter last year. Fourth quarter 2006 effective income tax rate was lower primarily due to the retroactive reinstatement of the federal research and development tax credit.

Harley-Davidson, Inc. -- Twelve Month Results

For the full year 2007, Harley-Davidson motorcycle revenue was $4.45 billion, a decrease of $106.9 million compared to 2006. P&A revenue totaled $868.3 million, a 0.7 percent increase over last year's $862.3 million. General Merchandise revenue totaled $305.4 million, a 10.1 percent increase compared to $277.5 million during 2006.

HDFS operating income was $212.2 million, a 0.7 percent increase over last year's $210.7 million.

Cash Flow

Cash and marketable securities totaled $405.3 million as of December 31, 2007. Cash flow from operations was $798.1 million, and capital expenditures were $242.1 million during the full year of 2007. In 2008, capital expenditures are expected to be between $240 and $260 million.

Stock Repurchase

The Company repurchased 3.2 million shares of its common stock at a cost of $153.3 million during the fourth quarter of 2007. For the full year 2007, the Company repurchased 20.4 million shares at a total cost of $1.15 billion. On December 31, 2007, the Company had 238.5 million shares of common stock outstanding.

As of December 31, 2007, there are 23.1 million shares remaining on board-approved share repurchase authorizations. An additional board-approved share repurchase authorization is in place to offset option exercises.

Company Background

Harley-Davidson, Inc. is the parent company for the group of companies doing business as Harley-Davidson Motor Company, Buell Motorcycle Company and Harley-Davidson Financial Services. Harley-Davidson Motor Company, the only major U.S.-based motorcycle manufacturer, produces heavyweight motorcycles and offers a complete line of motorcycle parts, accessories, apparel, and general merchandise. Buell Motorcycle Company produces sport motorcycles. Harley-Davidson Financial Services provides wholesale and retail financing and insurance programs to Harley-Davidson dealers and their retail customers.

Forward-Looking Statements

The Company intends that certain matters discussed in this release are "forward-looking statements" intended to qualify for the safe harbor from liability established by the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These forward-looking statements can generally be identified as such because the context of the statement will include words such as the Company "believes," "anticipates," "expects," "plans," or "estimates" or words of similar meaning. Similarly, statements that describe future plans, objectives, outlooks, targets, guidance or goals are also forward-looking statements. Such forward-looking statements are subject to certain risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those anticipated as of the date of this release. Certain of such risks and uncertainties are described below. Shareholders, potential investors, and other readers are urged to consider these factors in evaluating the forward-looking statements and cautioned not to place undue reliance on such forward-looking statements. The forward-looking statements included in this release are only made as of the date of this release, and the Company disclaims any obligation to publicly update such forward-looking statements to reflect subsequent events or circumstances.

The Company's ability to meet the targets and expectations noted depends upon, among other factors, the Company's ability to (i) continue to realize production efficiencies at its production facilities and manage operating costs including materials, labor and overhead, (ii) manage production capacity and production changes, (iii) manage supply chain issues, (iv) provide products, services and experiences that are successful in the marketplace, (v) develop and implement sales and marketing plans that retain existing retail customers and attract new retail customers in an increasingly competitive marketplace, (vi) sell all of its motorcycles and related products and services to its independent dealers and, (vii) continue to develop the capabilities of its distributor and dealer network, (viii) manage changes and prepare for requirements in legislative and regulatory environments for its products, services and operations, (ix) adjust to fluctuations in foreign currency exchange rates, interest rates and commodity prices, (x) manage access to reliable sources of capital and adjust to fluctuations in the cost of capital, (xi) manage regional and worldwide demographic trends and economic and political conditions, including healthcare inflation, pension reform and tax changes, (xii) anticipate consumer confidence in the economy, (xiii) manage the credit quality, the loan servicing and collection activities, and the recovery rates of HDFS' loan portfolio, (xiv) retain and attract talented employees, (xv) detect any issues with our motorcycles or manufacturing processes to avoid delays in new model launches, recall campaigns, increased warranty costs or litigation and (xvi) implement and manage enterprise-wide information technology solutions and secure data contained in those systems.

In addition, the Company could experience delays or disruptions in its operations as a result of work stoppages, strikes, natural causes, terrorism or other factors. Other factors are described in risk factors that the Company has disclosed in documents previously filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

The Company's ability to sell its motorcycles and related products and services and to meet its financial expectations also depends on the ability of the Company's independent dealers to sell its motorcycles and related products and services to retail customers. The Company depends on the capability and financial capacity of its independent dealers and distributors to develop and implement effective retail sales plans to create demand for the motorcycles and related products and services they purchase from the Company.

    In addition, the Company's independent dealers and distributors may
experience difficulties in selling Harley-Davidson motorcycles and related
products and services as a result of weather, economic conditions or other
factors.



                              Harley-Davidson, Inc.
                   Condensed Consolidated Statements of Income
                     (In thousands, except per share amounts)

                               (Unaudited) (Unaudited) (Unaudited)
                                  Three months ended     Twelve months ended
                                December    December    December     December
                                31, 2007    31, 2006    31, 2007     31, 2006

    Net revenue                $1,386,354  $1,502,633  $5,726,848  $5,800,686
    Gross profit                  494,534     571,052   2,114,100   2,232,847
    Operating expenses            243,945     233,073     883,457     823,857
     Operating income from
      motorcycles & related
      products                    250,589     337,979   1,230,643   1,408,990

    Financial services income      96,232      93,079     416,196     384,891
    Financial services expense     57,678      45,433     204,027     174,167
    Operating income from
     financial services            38,554      47,646     212,169     210,724

    Corporate expenses              3,488       5,838      17,251      22,561
    Income from operations        285,655     379,787   1,425,561   1,597,153
    Investment income, net          2,826       8,945      22,258      27,087
    Income before provision
     for income taxes             288,481     388,732   1,447,819   1,624,240
    Provision for income taxes    102,404     136,306     513,976     581,087
    Net income                   $186,077    $252,426    $933,843  $1,043,153

    Earnings per common share:
     Basic                          $0.78       $0.98       $3.75       $3.94
     Diluted                        $0.78       $0.97       $3.74       $3.93

    Weighted-average common shares:
     Basic                        239,390     258,138     249,205     264,453
     Diluted                      239,845     259,158     249,882     265,273

    Cash dividends per
     common share                   $0.30       $0.21       $1.06       $0.81



                              Harley-Davidson, Inc.
                      Condensed Consolidated Balance Sheets(In thousands)

                                                         (Unaudited)
                                                December 31,      December 31,
                                                    2007              2006

    ASSETS
    Current Assets:
     Cash and cash equivalents                    $402,854          $238,397
     Marketable securities                           2,475           658,133
     Accounts receivable, net                      181,217           143,049
     Finance receivables held for sale             781,280           547,106
     Finance receivables held for
      investment, net                            1,575,283         1,554,260
     Inventories                                   349,697           287,798
     Other current assets                          174,508           121,890
    Total current assets                         3,467,314         3,550,633

    Finance receivables held for
     investment, net                               845,044           725,957
    Other long-term assets                       1,344,248         1,255,560
                                                $5,656,606        $5,532,150

    LIABILITIES AND SHAREHOLDERS' EQUITY
    Current liabilities:
     Accounts payable & accrued liabilities       $785,124          $763,186
     Current portion of finance debt             1,119,955           832,491
    Total current liabilities                    1,905,079         1,595,677

    Finance debt                                   980,000           870,000
    Postretirement healthcare benefits             192,531           201,126
    Other long-term liabilities                    203,505           108,610

    Total shareholders' equity                   2,375,491         2,756,737
                                                $5,656,606        $5,532,150



                              Harley-Davidson, Inc.
                 Condensed Consolidated Statements of Cash Flows
                                  (In thousands)

                                         (Unaudited)
                                                   Twelve months ended
                                             December    December    December
                                             31, 2007    31, 2006    31, 2005

    Net cash provided by operating
     activities                              $798,146$761,780    $962,614

    Cash flows from investing activities:
      Capital expenditures                   (242,113)   (219,602)   (198,389)
      Finance receivables held for
       investment, net                       (145,381)   (151,624)   (156,438)
      Collection of retained
       securitization interests               118,175     101,641     115,346
      Net change in marketable securities     657,735     253,512     431,075
      Other, net                                2,789     (19,186)      2,246
    Net cash provided by (used by)
     investing activities                     391,205     (35,259)    193,840

    Cash flows from financing activities:
      Proceeds from issuance of medium
       term notes                             398,144           -     199,974
      Net (decrease) increase in
       finance-credit facilities
       and commercial paper                   (16,247)    493,125    (280,694)
      Repayment of senior subordinated
       debt                                   (30,000)          -           -
      Dividends                              (260,805)   (212,914)   (173,785)
      Purchase of common stock for
       treasury                            (1,153,439) (1,061,968) (1,054,615)
      Excess tax benefits from
       share-based payments                     3,066      18,933       6,065
      Issuance of common stock under
       employee stock option plans             21,478     125,801      31,264
    Net cash used by financing activities  (1,037,803)   (637,023) (1,271,791)

    Effect of exchange rate changes on
     cash and cash equivalents                 12,909       7,924     (18,847)

    Net increase (decrease) in cash and
     cash equivalents                         164,457      97,422    (134,184)

    Cash and cash equivalents:
      At beginning of period                  238,397     140,975     275,159
      At end of period                       $402,854    $238,397    $140,975



                           Net Revenue and Motorcycle
                                  Shipment Data

                               (Unaudited) (Unaudited) (Unaudited)
                                 Three months ended     Twelve months ended
                                December     December   December    December
                                31, 2007     31, 2006   31, 2007    31, 2006
    NET REVENUE (in thousands)
    Harley-Davidson(R)
     motorcycles$1,118,328  $1,223,861  $4,446,637  $4,553,561
    Buell(R) motorcycles           27,739      27,401     100,534     102,227
    Parts & Accessories           165,190     179,151     868,297     862,251
    General Merchandise            73,424      70,617     305,435     277,490
    Other                           1,673       1,603       5,945       5,157
                               $1,386,354  $1,502,633  $5,726,848  $5,800,686


    HARLEY-DAVIDSON UNITS
    Motorcycle shipments:
      United States                59,092      74,492     241,539     273,212
      Export                       22,114      18,356      89,080      75,984
    Total                          81,206      92,848     330,619     349,196


    Motorcycle product mix:
      Touring                      29,142      32,530     114,076     123,444
      Custom                       34,931      44,591     144,507     161,195
      Sportster(R)                 17,133      15,727      72,036      64,557
    Total                          81,206      92,848     330,619     349,196

    BUELL UNITS
    Motorcycle shipments:
      Buell                         3,137       3,355      11,513      12,460



                 Retail Sales of Harley-Davidson Motorcycles
                            Year to Date December

                                                                2007     2006

    United States                                            251,772  268,366
    Europe*                                                   38,866   33,786
    Japan                                                     13,765   13,284
    Canada                                                    14,779   13,514
    All other markets                                         18,592   15,031

    Total Retail Sales of Harley-Davidson Motorcycles        337,774  343,981

    Data Source (subject to update)
    Data source for all 2006 and 2007 retail sales figures shown above is
    sales warranty and registration information provided by Harley-Davidson
    dealers and compiled by the Company.  The Company must rely on information
    that its dealers supply concerning ret

    Only Harley-Davidson(R) motorcycles are included in the Harley-Davidson
    Motorcycle Sales data.

    *Data for Europe includes Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France,
    Germany, Greece, Italy, Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Spain, Sweden,
    Switzerland, and the United Kingdom.



                           Heavyweight Market Data
                        Data Through Month Indicated

                                                                2007     2006

    United States (1) (December)                             516,083  542,991
    Europe (2) (November)                                    385,589  365,889

    1 - United States industry data includes 651+cc models, derived from
        submission of motorcycle retail sales by each major manufacturer to an
        independent third party.

    2 - Europe data includes Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France,
        Germany, Greece, Italy, Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Spain, Sweden,
        Switzerland, and the United Kingdom.  Industry retail motorcycle
        registration data includes 651+cc models, derived from information
        provided by Giral S.A., an independent agency.

Harley-Davidson, Inc.

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